Untangling the West from the Middle East

For decades, the West’s entanglement in the Middle East has been driven by a potent combination of strategic interests, geopolitical competition, and most of all, oil. Despite the global energy transition and the West’s growing investments in renewables, the Middle East still plays a pivotal role in shaping global oil markets. As a result, the region remains a cornerstone of Western foreign policy, whether for economic stability or security alliances.

Yet, there’s an increasing recognition that the current level of entanglement comes at a cost. The Middle East’s deep rooted conflicts, authoritarian regimes, and its status as a geopolitical chessboard have often drawn the West into crises that compromise its values, stretch its military resources, and limit its diplomatic agility.

The goal shouldn't be full disengagement from the Middle East, that would be naïve, and arguably dangerous. A complete Western retreat would create a vacuum quickly filled by powers like China and Russia, who are eager to expand their spheres of influence and build strategic footholds in key areas such as energy, infrastructure, and arms sales.

This disentanglement means the West recalibrating its involvement to reduce overdependence, especially when it comes to fossil fuels, while maintaining enough presence to protect strategic interests and values.

The most practical step toward untangling is weaning off oil dependence. Although the West has made significant progress in clean energy investment, the Middle East still supplies significant levels of the world’s oil. Building resilient energy systems with diversified sources be they nuclear, renewables, and home drilled oil can give Western nations more freedom to act independently.

The West also needs to shift from transactional alliances with regimes that suppress human rights to partnerships based on mutual respect, regional stability, and reform incentives. Support should be more conditional, with an emphasis on governance, economic reform, and regional cooperation. This helps the West distance itself from the worst excesses of its allies without ceding influence altogether.

Untangling should not mean surrendering the playing field though. China’s Belt and Road investments and Russia’s military interventions show that power vacuums can be quickly filled.  In regards to arms sales specifically, although I understand the argument for not selling arms, if these are not supplied by the West these will simply be supplied by someone else. So not selling arms to the Middle East won't resolve any issues but instead reduce the West's influence on how these weapons are used and on wider Middle Eastern issues. The West must remain engaged, through diplomacy, trade, and selective security cooperation, to ensure it is not crowded out of a strategically vital region.

Ultimately, this is about giving the West more room to maneuver. A flexible posture enables more effective responses to global crises, frees up resources for challenges in other parts of the globe, and reduces the political blowback that often comes from being seen as too cozy with autocrats. It also creates space for encouraging long term regional solutions driven by the Middle East itself.

The West doesn’t need to walk away from the Middle East, but it must learn to walk differently. Reducing dependency, realigning partnerships, and avoiding unnecessary military commitments can give Western nations the freedom to pursue their interests without being locked into outdated patterns. It's a balancing act between disengagement and dominance, between influence and interference.